Flyer

February 2000

 

"You ain't seen nothing yet...."

"Technical editor Miles McCallum looks ahead at what the next ten years will bring"

 

"The ten years since FLYER was launched has produced more change in general aviation than the previous 20. As a watcher (and sometimes participator) of events. I'm convinced it's merely the tip of the iceberg - the changes in aircraft, engines, avionics, legislation and politics are about to mushroom at a breathtaking rate. In other words, you ain't seen nothing yet...

 

Lighter than Airframes

Although the dust has yet to settle - the Joint Aviation Authority still hasn't decided on the definitive categories of Certification of Airworthiness - the big news will be aircraft at the light end of the scale, around (but not limited to) the 450kg class level.

Available as either homebuilts or ready to go certified aeroplanes - with scant differences except certification - they really show up the present fleet of 152s, 172s. PA28s and the like for what they are: fuel hungry, inefficient, expensive dinosaurs. Most are, if you like, the aeroplane equivalent of a 60s Chevrolet.

Some of the first examples in the 450kg class show the way. Cruise speeds are as good or higher than current certified aircraft, fuel consumption is cut in half, they handle better than many, and are as stable as much larger, heavier aircraft.

Just as important, low minimum flying speeds and light weight mean they are safer. Airframe parachute technology has matured to a certain extent, and Ballistic Recovery Systems such as that fitted to the Cirms SR20 will become commonplace rather than the exception. With a shift to recreational flying licences and a much greater emphasis on cost, most training will be on 450kg machines.

Airframe costs will come down too: a hard currency hungry, sophisticated, skilled ex-Eastern block workforce is already picking up manufacturing contracts at low labour rates for American designs such as the new Luscombe. There is no shortage of astute and innovative design talent there either. European manufacturers will shift production eastwards as well, in a bid to stay globally competitive.

In terms of what aircraft will look like, the answer is about the same as you see now. The fact that most aircraft today have the engine at the front and the tail at the back points the way to the fewest compromises. Composites offer superior solutions to some design requirements, but wood and metal still provide the most cost effective answers in some areas, so expect more mixed construction types.

 

Fuel drives engine changes

The driving force in the engine world over the next decade will be fuel. The European Commission is set to ban the use of all leaded fuel within the next three years, and as an acceptable substitute for 100LL Avgas has yet to found or agreed upon, around a third of the current fleet will effectively be grounded.

Some aircraft will soldier on with performance reducing unleaded conversions. But the market for re-engining 'classic' types will flourish - almost certainly with avtur burning engines.

The big revolution will be diesels. They're miserly, simple and robust. Fuel is currently much cheaper (around a third of the price of avgas) but don't expect that to last; the EC is already looking for a way to slap on duty.

Diesels will, however, transform direct operating costs. Popping over to Paris for a meal will be a cheaper alternative than catching the train to London for a night out - assuming that Eurocontrol charges don't suddenly become a factor in the equation for private pilots (see below).

 

'Intelligent' avionics

Proposals from the engine of world general aviation - the US - to reduce reliability standards from one-in-a-billion failures to one-in-ten-thousand will lead to new products coming on to the market at cheaper prices than ever. Think panel-mount Navigation / Communications units at not much more than the price of hand-held devices.

Glass cockpits will become more prevalent, albeit for a select well-heeled (or fanatical) few for the next decade. Combining flight and engine instruments - perhaps in formats more like the latest generation of airliners - together with a moving map on a single large format screen, glass instruments will trickle down to common use as the economies of large scale production take effect.

The real revolution will be in Nav-Com database interfaces. At a simple level, your GPS will intelligently update the list of com frequencies you might want, and a simple select button will tune the radio. At the other end of the spectrum, real time weather uploads will be possible, as will filing and updating flight plans.

Unfortunately, cheap sophisticated electronics also mean European legislation will require nearly all aircraft to have mode S transponders fitted. These deliver far more information than just a four-digit squawk code and altitude - under the guise of an efficient means of collecting navigation charges.

In addition to position, the transponder will also provide data on type, registration and night plan number. Currently, European Navigation charges are applied to aircraft over 2000kg in controlled airspace, with the exception of training and testing, but the betting is JAA will try to extend this down to all aircraft. Those pilots or aircraft operators who choose not to fit the equipment will be excluded from large chunks of airspace and restricted to a very local area

 

Airspace a 'mishmash of leftovers'

The present controlled airspace system is a mishmash of leftovers from a different age when beacons were king - overlaid with a patchwork of fixes to deal with today's commercial traffic levels and aircraft performance. It's a mess and it can't be sorted without the involvement and co-operation of a large number of countries.

The airlines hate the system - it forces them to fly on less than optimum (read profitable) routes with doglegs, hubs, and assembly points based on historic navigation equipment that probably isn't even there anymore. They would like to fly direct, and the argument it will improve the capacity of the skies has some merit. Considerable work is already underway to make this happen.

Unfortunately, the authorities and organisations involved tend to pay little heed to the needs or requirements of GA, so although there are likely to be some serious clean-ups over the next decade, there will probably be restrictions as well.

It's likely to get worse (culminating in a crisis of some sort) before it gets better. But AOPA is our best bet in holding up the GA point of view. It has representatives attending many of the key meetings and examining the output of committees and study groups.

 

PFA to become the 'Recreational Flying Authority'!

Certification of aircraft is where the biggest change is likely to be found. We think the CAA would like to get rid of the day-to-day responsibility for non-commercial aviation.

The most likely scenario is the Popular Flying Association taking on more and more responsibility. It would start with all vintage aircraft, for instance, and the PFA would fairly rapidly evolve into a CAA Mark 2, taking care of and being responsible for all noncommercial flying in the UK, with a voice within Europe.

By necessity, other special interest responsible associations - microlighters, soarers, and balloonists - will become part of the Recreational Flying Authority, or whatever it's called. This will lead to some quite beneficial changes. It opens the possibility of self maintained C of A types (restricted to flying within the UK) along the lines of an upgraded PFA permit system, and 'night/IFR certified' homebuilts being allowed free access to JAA states.

It will probably take the better part of the decade to happen completely, but we will end up with a regulatory authority with an intimate knowledge and appreciation of the problems and benefits of private flying. If it sounds a bit Utopian, bear in mind it won't all be roses and sunny summer days. One of the things the RFA is likely to get tough on is aircraft noise. Being quieter will be a requirement for our survival.

 

Maintenance famine

Aircraft engineers and avionics technicians are going to be something of a problem. The airlines are gobbling up most of the new blood, and already quite a number of maintenance firms are short of skilled personnel.

There are some moves being made to remedy the situation - encouraging school leavers to consider the profession, for instance - but the majority of these will end up working on big jets, where the money is. This is another situation that will get worse before it gets better and could end up as the biggest headache for the Recreational Flying Authority - although a shift to more owner maintenance might ease the situation.

The cost of maintenance will remain the same at best, even if the Recreational Flying Authority comes into being. Consider that yearly PFA permit charges and CAA C of A renewal charges actually correspond quite closely over the long term.

 

Easier licence

Within three years - and I don't feel as though I'm sticking my neck out - there will be a UKrestricted Recreational Pilot's Licence. It will limit pilots to four-seaters, flying day VFR only within the UK.

The big plus is that it will have a 30-hour syllabus covering only what the majority of non-commercial pilots are really interested in. It will miss out certain elements like flying on instruments and radio navigation. The RPL will be, effectively, two-thirds of a JAR-PPL and easily upgradeable to such with some additional training.

Training will be mainly done on 450kg aeroplanes, with additional training and a signoff required if you want to fly taildraggers, use wobbly props, and so on. It will cut the cost of learning to fly in half.

This is NOT a pipedream - check the story on page 6 for news of how AOPA is progressing this concept.

 

Medicals

Medicals will be de-restricted for flying with the Recreational Pilots Licence. A yearly doctor's certificate from your GP will be all that's required - as it is at the moment with gliders and microlights. It makes sense. Your GP is probably in the best position to know whether you're up to it. JAA and CAA PPLs will still have to have full medicals.

 

General outlook

From the average weekend pilot's point of view, the majority of changes will be in more complex and confusing regulation - pretty much the situation at the moment. Although general operating costs - depreciation, fuel, and maintenance - will reduce somewhat as new designs come on line, it will not cut the cost of flying in real terms all that much if navigation charges are imposed.

The one significant change to aircraft - and this applies particularly to the present fleet as well as new designs - is that they will become significantly quieter. Avtur burning engines will gradually replace the gas-guzzlers, but the financial benefits will be partly offset by the introduction of a European aviation fuel tax.

Swings and roundabouts really. Some things will get better, others'll get worse. But we look forward to the Recreational Flying Authority it could bring flying closer to the masses."

* Article not included here